TED英語(yǔ)演講課
給心靈放個(gè)假吧
失敗是成功之母。科學(xué)發(fā)現(xiàn)的奧秘也在于犯錯(cuò)誤。
任何科學(xué)發(fā)現(xiàn)都是建立在錯(cuò)誤的發(fā)現(xiàn)基礎(chǔ)之上的。當(dāng)我們發(fā)現(xiàn)錯(cuò)誤，改正錯(cuò)誤以后，下一個(gè)發(fā)現(xiàn)可能會(huì)帶給我們意想不到的驚喜。
Now, people have a lot of misconceptions about science --
人們對(duì)于科學(xué)有很多誤解——
about how it works and what it is.
關(guān)于科學(xué)原理和科學(xué)的含義。
A big one is that science is just a big old pile of facts.
一個(gè)最大的誤解是， 科學(xué)只是一大堆陳舊的事實(shí)。
But that’s not true -- that’s not even the goal of science.
但這并不正確 ——這甚至不是科學(xué)的目的。
Science is a process.
科學(xué)是一個(gè)過(guò)程。
It’s a way of thinking.
它是一種思考方式。
Gathering facts is just a piece of it, but it’s not the goal.
收集事實(shí)只是其中一步， 但并非目的。
The ultimate goal of science is to understand objective reality
科學(xué)的最終目的 是用我們所知道的最優(yōu)方法
the best way we know how,
來(lái)理解客觀事實(shí)，
and that’s based on evidence.
即要以證據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)。
The problem here is that people are flawed.
問(wèn)題在于，人類是有缺陷的。
We can be fooled --
我們可能被愚弄——
we’re really good at fooling ourselves.
我們真的很擅長(zhǎng)欺騙自己。
And so baked into this process is a way of minimizing our own bias.
所以，融入科學(xué)的探究過(guò)程， 是一種將偏見(jiàn)最小化的方法。
So sort of boiled down more than is probably useful,
總結(jié)起來(lái)說(shuō)可能更好，
here’s how this works.
科學(xué)的原理如下。
If you want to do some science,
如果你想要做點(diǎn)科學(xué)研究，
what you want to do is you want to observe something ...
觀察一些事物…
say, 'The sky is blue. Hey, I wonder why?'
舉例來(lái)說(shuō)，“天空是藍(lán)的， 我很好奇為什么是這樣？”
You question it.
你提出疑問(wèn)。
The next thing you do is you come up with an idea that may explain it:
下一步你要做的 是提出一個(gè)可能的解釋：
a hypothesis.
一個(gè)假設(shè)。
Well, you know what? Oceans are blue.
首先，海水是藍(lán)的。
Maybe the sky is reflecting the colors from the ocean.
也許天空反射了海洋的藍(lán)色。
Great, but now you have to test it
很好，但現(xiàn)在你得檢驗(yàn)它，
so you predict what that might mean.
去推測(cè)這意味著什么。
Your prediction would be,
你的預(yù)測(cè)可能是，
Well, if the sky is reflecting the ocean color,
“哦，如果天空反射了海洋的顏色，
it will be bluer on the coasts
那么海水在海邊的顏色
than it will be in the middle of the country.'
要比在一個(gè)國(guó)家的內(nèi)陸部分更藍(lán)。”
OK, that’s fair enough,
好的，這很合理，
but you’ve got to test that prediction
但你得驗(yàn)證那個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)，
so you get on a plane, you leave Denver on a nice gray day,
于是你坐上飛機(jī)，在一個(gè) 灰蒙蒙的好日子里離開(kāi)丹佛，
you fly to LA, you look up and the sky is gloriously blue.
飛到洛杉磯，望向天空， 天空映襯著壯麗的蔚藍(lán)色。
Hooray, your thesis is proven.
太好了，你的論點(diǎn)被證明了。
But is it really? No.
但真是這樣嗎？不是。
You’ve made one observation.
你做了一個(gè)觀察。
You need to think about your hypothesis, think about how to test it
你得對(duì)這個(gè)假設(shè)進(jìn)行斟酌， 思考如何檢驗(yàn)它，
and do more than just one.
還要重復(fù)多次。
Maybe you could go to a different part of the country
也許你可以去這個(gè)國(guó)家的其他地方，
or a different part of the year
或者在一年的不同時(shí)間去，
and see what the weather’s like then.
看看那時(shí)的天氣如何。
Another good idea is to talk to other people.
另一個(gè)好主意是和其他人聊聊。
They have different ideas, different perspectives,
他們有不同的想法，不同的視角，
and they can help you.
他們可以幫助到你。
This is what we call peer review.
這就是我們所稱的同行評(píng)議。
And in fact that will probably also save you a lot of money and a lot of time,
事實(shí)上，這也會(huì)幫你省下 很大一筆錢(qián)和時(shí)間，
flying coast-to-coast just to check the weather.
不必只為了看看天氣兩頭飛。
Now, what happens if your hypothesis does a decent job but not a perfect job?
那么如果你的假設(shè)很好， 但不是很完美怎么辦？
Well, that’s OK,
這不是大問(wèn)題，
because what you can do is you can modify it a little bit
因?yàn)槟憧梢詫?duì)它進(jìn)行一點(diǎn)修正，
and then go through this whole process again --
然后再把整個(gè)流程走一遍——
make predictions, test them --
做預(yù)測(cè)，檢驗(yàn)它——
and as you do that over and over again, you will hone this idea.
隨著你一遍又一遍地重復(fù)， 你的假設(shè)便會(huì)被優(yōu)化。
And if it gets good enough,
如果它變得足夠好了，
it may be accepted by the scientific community,
可能會(huì)被科學(xué)界采納，
at least provisionally,
至少暫時(shí)性地，
as a good explanation of what’s going on,
作為一種對(duì)此自然現(xiàn)象的合理解釋，
at least until a better idea
直到有更好的觀點(diǎn)
or some contradictory evidence comes along.
或者出現(xiàn)了一些與之相矛盾的證據(jù)。
Now, part of this process is admitting when you’re wrong.
科學(xué)探究過(guò)程的一部分 就是承認(rèn)你的錯(cuò)誤。
And that can be really, really hard.
這真的非常、非常難。
Science has its strengths and weaknesses
科學(xué)有其優(yōu)勢(shì)和不足，
and they depend on this.
而它依賴于錯(cuò)誤。
One of the strengths of science is that it’s done by people,
科學(xué)的優(yōu)點(diǎn)之一是， 它是由人來(lái)完成的，
and it’s proven itself to do a really good job.
長(zhǎng)久以來(lái)我們獲得的 科學(xué)成就也毋庸置疑。
We understand the universe pretty well because of science.
因?yàn)榭茖W(xué)，我們對(duì)宇宙 有非常不錯(cuò)的認(rèn)知。
One of science’s weaknesses is that it’s done by people,
而科學(xué)的一個(gè)不足也恰恰是， 它是由人來(lái)完成的，
and we bring a lot of baggage along with us when we investigate things.
當(dāng)我們調(diào)查研究的時(shí)候， 會(huì)帶著很多包袱。
We are egotistical,
我們是任性主觀的，
we are stubborn, we’re superstitious,
我們固執(zhí)且迷信，
we’re tribal, we’re humans --
我們是群聚動(dòng)物，我們是人類——
these are all human traits and scientists are humans.
這些都是人的特點(diǎn)，而科學(xué)家也是人。
And so we have to be aware of that when we’re studying science
所以在研究和做出假設(shè)時(shí)，
and when we’re trying to develop our theses.
我們要意識(shí)到這一點(diǎn)。
But part of this whole thing,
但這整件事的一部分，
part of this scientific process,
整個(gè)科學(xué)過(guò)程的一部分，
part of the scientific method,
整個(gè)科學(xué)方法的一部分，
is admitting when you’re wrong.
在于要承認(rèn)自己在哪里犯了錯(cuò)。
I know, I’ve been there.
我曾經(jīng)有過(guò)這樣的經(jīng)歷。
Many years ago I was working on Hubble Space Telescope,
許多年前，我在 哈勃太空望遠(yuǎn)鏡項(xiàng)目工作，
and a scientist I worked with came to me with some data,
有個(gè)一起共事的 科學(xué)家?guī)е鴶?shù)據(jù)來(lái)找我，
and he said, 'I think there may be a picture
他說(shuō)：“我認(rèn)為這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)表明
of a planet orbiting another star in this data.'
可能有顆行星圍繞另一顆恒星轉(zhuǎn)?！?/p>
We had not had any pictures taken of planets orbiting other stars yet,
人們當(dāng)時(shí)還沒(méi)有拍到行星 繞其他恒星轉(zhuǎn)的照片，
so if this were true,
所以如果這個(gè)是真的，
then this would be the first one
就會(huì)是世界上的首次發(fā)現(xiàn)，
and we would be the ones who found it.
并且我們就是發(fā)現(xiàn)它的人。
That’s a big deal.
這可了不得。
I was very excited,
我非常激動(dòng)，
so I just dug right into this data.
所以我就深入研究了這些數(shù)據(jù)。
I spent a long time trying to figure out if this thing were a planet or not.
我花了很長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間去搞清楚 這個(gè)東西是不是行星。
The problem is planets are faint and stars are bright,
問(wèn)題是行星很暗，恒星很亮，
so trying to get the signal out of this data
所以試圖從這些數(shù)據(jù)中獲取信號(hào)
was like trying to hear a whisper in a heavy metal concert --
就像在重金屬音樂(lè)會(huì)上聽(tīng)到耳語(yǔ)一樣。
it was really hard.
真是非常難。
I tried everything I could,
我想盡了一切辦法，
but after a month of working on this,
但忙了一個(gè)月后，
I came to a realization ... couldn’t do it.
我意識(shí)到…我做不到。
I had to give up.
我不得不放棄。
And I had to tell this other scientist,
我得告訴其他科學(xué)家，
The data’s too messy.
“數(shù)據(jù)太混亂了，
We can’t say whether this is a planet or not.'
我們無(wú)法確定這是不是行星?！?/p>
And that was hard.
承認(rèn)這件事真的非常難。
Then later on we got follow-up observations with Hubble,
后來(lái)我們用哈勃望遠(yuǎn)鏡做了后續(xù)觀測(cè)，
and it showed that it wasn’t a planet.
結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)它并不是一顆行星，
It was a background star or galaxy, something like that.
只是個(gè)類似于背景恒星或星系的東西。
Well, not to get too technical, but that sucked.
我不想說(shuō)得太專業(yè)， 但那真是太糟糕了。
(Laughter)
（笑聲）
I was really unhappy about this.
我對(duì)此真的非常失落。
But that’s part of it.
但就這是科學(xué)的一部分。
You have to say, 'Look, you know, we can’t do this with the data we have.'
你不得不承認(rèn)，“看吧， 我們無(wú)法用現(xiàn)有數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析。”
And then I had to face up to the fact
隨后我還得面對(duì)
that even the follow-up data showed we were wrong.
后續(xù)的數(shù)據(jù)證明 我們是錯(cuò)的這個(gè)事實(shí)。
Emotionally I was pretty unhappy.
情感上，我非常失落。
But if a scientist is doing their job correctly,
但如果一個(gè)科學(xué)家正確地進(jìn)行了研究，
being wrong is not so bad
犯了錯(cuò)誤并不是壞事，
because that means there’s still more stuff out there --
因?yàn)檫@意味著 在此之外還有更多事物——
more things to figure out.
更多的東西等待著我們?nèi)ヌ剿鳌?/p>
Scientists don’t love being wrong but we love puzzles,
科學(xué)家不喜歡犯錯(cuò)，但我們喜歡謎題，
and the universe is the biggest puzzle of them all.
而宇宙就是最大的迷題。
Now having said that,
話雖如此，
if you have a piece and it doesn’t fit no matter how you move it,
如果你有一小塊拼圖， 但怎么擺弄都拼不上，
jamming it in harder isn’t going to help.
硬插進(jìn)去并沒(méi)有用。
There’s going to be a time when you have to let go of your idea
如果你想要理解更大的概念，
if you want to understand the bigger picture.
就得放棄目前所持有的觀點(diǎn)。
The price of doing science is admitting when you’re wrong,
科學(xué)研究的代價(jià)就是 當(dāng)你犯錯(cuò)時(shí)要承認(rèn)，
but the payoff is the best there is:
但這件事的回報(bào)是最好的：
knowledge and understanding.
知識(shí)和理解。
And I can give you a thousand examples of this in science,
我可以給你上千個(gè)科學(xué)案例，
but there’s one I really like.
但其中有一個(gè)我真的很喜歡。
It has to do with astronomy,
這當(dāng)然與天文學(xué)有關(guān)，
and it was a question that had been plaguing astronomers
這個(gè)問(wèn)題一直困擾了天文學(xué)家
literally for centuries.
好幾個(gè)世紀(jì)。
When you look at the Sun, it seems special.
太陽(yáng)看起來(lái)很特別。
It is the brightest object in the sky,
它是天空中最亮的物體，
but having studied astronomy, physics, chemistry, thermodynamics for centuries,
但是經(jīng)過(guò)了幾個(gè)世紀(jì)的天文學(xué)， 物理學(xué)，化學(xué)，熱力學(xué)研究后，
we learned something very important about it.
我們了解到了一些 關(guān)于太陽(yáng)的重要信息。
It’s not that special.
它不再那么特別了。
It’s a star just like millions of other stars.
它不過(guò)跟其他數(shù)百萬(wàn)個(gè)恒星一樣。
But that raises an interesting question.
但這又引申出了一個(gè)有趣的問(wèn)題。
If the Sun is a star
如果太陽(yáng)是恒星，
and the Sun has planets,
并且太陽(yáng)有行星，
do these other stars have planets?
其他恒星會(huì)有行星嗎？
Well, like I said with my own failure in the 'planet' I was looking for,
像我提到的在尋找“行星”上的失敗經(jīng)歷，
finding them is super hard,
找到它們真的非常難，
but scientists tend to be pretty clever people
但科學(xué)家往往非常聰明，
and they used a lot of different techniques
他們會(huì)應(yīng)用很多不同的技術(shù)
and started observing stars.
觀察恒星。
And over the decades
幾十年后，
they started finding some things that were pretty interesting,
他們開(kāi)始發(fā)現(xiàn)一些真正有趣的東西，
right on the thin, hairy edge of what they were able to detect.
就在他們能夠探測(cè)到的 薄而粗糙的邊緣。
But time and again, it was shown to be wrong.
但事實(shí)一再證明，這是錯(cuò)的。
That all changed in 1991.
事態(tài)在1991年才完全改變。
A couple of astronomers --
幾位天文學(xué)家——
Alexander Lyne -- Andrew Lyne, pardon me --
亞歷山大·萊恩—— 安德魯·萊恩，對(duì)不起——
and Matthew Bailes,
和馬修·貝爾斯，
had a huge announcement.
發(fā)布了一項(xiàng)重大聲明。
They had found a planet orbiting another star.
他們發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個(gè)繞著 另一顆恒星旋轉(zhuǎn)的行星。
And not just any star, but a pulsar,
不是隨便一顆恒星，而是脈沖星，
and this is the remnant of a star that has previously exploded.
這是之前爆炸過(guò)的恒星的殘骸。
It’s blasting out radiation.
它在爆炸時(shí)釋放了大量輻射。
This is the last place in the universe you would expect to find a planet,
這是宇宙中你最不可能 找到行星的地方。
but they had very methodically looked at this pulsar,
但他們非常系統(tǒng)地 觀察了這顆脈沖星，
and they detected the gravitational tug of this planet as it orbited the pulsar.
當(dāng)這顆行星繞脈沖星旋轉(zhuǎn)時(shí)， 他們探測(cè)到了它的引力。
It looked really good.
這看起來(lái)真的很棒。
The first planet orbiting another star had been found ...
第一顆繞另一顆恒星 運(yùn)行的行星被發(fā)現(xiàn)了…
except not so much.
只是沒(méi)有那么多。
(Laughter)
（笑聲）
After they made the announcement,
在他們發(fā)布公告后，
a bunch of other astronomers commented on it,
其他一些天文學(xué)家對(duì)此發(fā)表了評(píng)論，
and so they went back and looked at their data
于是他們仔細(xì)地回去查看數(shù)據(jù)，
and realized they had made a very embarrassing mistake.
并意識(shí)到自己犯了 一個(gè)非常尷尬的錯(cuò)誤。
They had not accounted for some very subtle characteristics
他們沒(méi)有考慮到地球繞太陽(yáng)的運(yùn)動(dòng)中
of the Earth’s motion around the Sun,
一些非常不明顯的特征，
which affected how they measured this planet going around the pulsar.
這些特征影響了他們測(cè)量這顆行星 繞脈沖星運(yùn)行的方式。
And it turns out that when they did account for it correctly,
結(jié)果，當(dāng)他們做了正確的計(jì)算時(shí)，
poof -- their planet disappeared.
糟糕——他們的行星消失了。
It wasn’t real.
它其實(shí)并不存在的。
So Andrew Lyne had a very formidable task.
安德魯·萊恩有個(gè)非常艱巨的任務(wù)，
He had to admit this.
他得承認(rèn)錯(cuò)誤。
So in 1992 at the American Astronomical Society meeting,
于是在1992年美國(guó)天文學(xué)會(huì)會(huì)議，
which is one of the largest gatherings of astronomers on the planet,
這個(gè)全世界最大的天文學(xué)會(huì)議上，
he stood up and announced that he had made a mistake
他站起來(lái)并宣布他犯了個(gè)錯(cuò)誤，
and that the planet did not exist.
那顆行星并不存在。
And what happened next --
接下來(lái)發(fā)生的是——
oh, I love this --
太讓我激動(dòng)了——
what happened next was wonderful.
接下來(lái)的一幕很讓人難忘。
He got an ovation.
他得到了熱烈的掌聲。
The astronomers weren’t angry at him;
天文學(xué)家們并沒(méi)有對(duì)他表示憤怒；
they didn’t want to chastise him.
他們不想譴責(zé)他，
They praised him for his honesty and his integrity.
而是贊揚(yáng)了他的誠(chéng)實(shí)和正直。
I love that!
我非常喜歡這一點(diǎn)！
Scientists are people.
科學(xué)家也是人。
(Laughter)
（笑聲）
And it gets better!
事情在變得越來(lái)越好！
(Laughter)
（笑聲）
Lyne steps off the podium.
萊恩從講臺(tái)上走下來(lái)后，
The next guy to come up is a man named Aleksander Wolszczan
下一位上臺(tái)的人是亞歷山大·沃爾茲森，
He takes the microphone and says,
他拿起麥克風(fēng)說(shuō)道，
Yeah, so Lyne’s team didn’t find a pulsar planet,
“很遺憾，萊恩的團(tuán)隊(duì)沒(méi)有發(fā)現(xiàn)脈沖星，
but my team found not just one
但我的團(tuán)隊(duì)發(fā)現(xiàn)了不止一個(gè)，
but two planets orbiting a different pulsar.
而是兩顆行星圍繞不同的脈沖星運(yùn)行。
We knew about the problem that Lyne had,
我們知道萊恩存在的問(wèn)題，
we checked for it, and yeah, ours are real.'
我們仔細(xì)核實(shí)了自己的結(jié)果， 我們的結(jié)果是真的?！?/p>
And it turns out he was right.
結(jié)果他是對(duì)的。
And in fact, a few months later,
事實(shí)上，幾個(gè)月后，
they found a third planet orbiting this pulsar
他們發(fā)現(xiàn)了第三顆繞著 這顆脈沖星的行星，
and it was the first exoplanet system ever found --
這是迄今為止發(fā)現(xiàn)的 第一個(gè)系外行星系統(tǒng)——
what we call alien worlds -- exoplanets.
我們稱之為外星世界——系外行星。
That to me is just wonderful.
這對(duì)我來(lái)說(shuō)太棒了。
At that point the floodgates were opened.
從那時(shí)起，就好像 泄洪閥門(mén)被打開(kāi)了一樣。
In 1995 a planet was found around a star more like the Sun,
1995年，一個(gè)行星被發(fā)現(xiàn) 繞著類似太陽(yáng)的恒星運(yùn)行，
and then we found another and another.
隨后我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個(gè)又一個(gè)。
This is an image of an actual planet orbiting an actual star.
這是一顆圍繞恒星運(yùn)行的行星圖像。
We kept getting better at it.
我們做得越來(lái)越好。
We started finding them by the bucketload.
我們開(kāi)始成批成批地找到它們，
We started finding thousands of them.
數(shù)量達(dá)到了幾千個(gè)。
We built observatories specifically designed to look for them.
我們建造了專門(mén)用來(lái) 尋找它們的天文臺(tái)。
And now we know of thousands of them.
利用這些天文臺(tái)， 我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了數(shù)千顆行星。
We even know of planetary systems.
我們甚至了解了行星系統(tǒng)。
That is actual data, animated, showing four planets orbiting another star.
這是真實(shí)的數(shù)據(jù)，動(dòng)畫(huà)顯示了 圍繞另一顆恒星運(yùn)行的四顆行星。
This is incredible. Think about that.
真是難以置信，想想看吧。
For all of human history,
縱觀人類歷史，
you could count all the known planets in the universe on two hands --
用兩只手就可以算出 宇宙中所有的行星——
nine -- eight?
9——8個(gè)？
Nine? Eight -- eight.
9個(gè)？8——8個(gè)。
(Laughter)
（笑聲）
Eh.
呃。
(Laughter)
（笑聲）
But now we know they’re everywhere.
但現(xiàn)在我們知道它們到處都是。
Every star --
每個(gè)恒星——
for every star you see in the sky there could be three, five, ten planets.
每個(gè)你在天空看到的星星， 都可能擁有3，5，10個(gè)行星。
The sky is filled with them.
它們布滿了天空。
We think that planets may outnumber stars in the galaxy.
我們認(rèn)為行星的數(shù)量可能 超過(guò)星系中的恒星。
This is a profound statement,
這是一個(gè)意義重大的結(jié)論，
and it was made because of science.
這全要?dú)w功于科學(xué)。
And it wasn’t made just because of science and the observatories and the data;
得出這個(gè)結(jié)論不止要?dú)w功于 科學(xué)研究和數(shù)據(jù)觀測(cè)；
it was made because of the scientists who built the observatories,
能得出這個(gè)結(jié)論要?dú)w功于 建造了天文臺(tái)的科學(xué)家，
who took the data,
他們得到了數(shù)據(jù)，
who made the mistakes and admitted them
他們犯了錯(cuò)誤并承認(rèn)了錯(cuò)誤，
and then let other scientists build on their mistakes
然后讓其他科學(xué)家 在他們的錯(cuò)誤之上前進(jìn)，
so that they could do what they do
所以他們可以做到力所能及的事，
and figure out where our place is in the universe.
并去弄清楚我們?cè)谟钪嬷械奈恢谩?/p>
That is how you find the truth.
這就是你發(fā)現(xiàn)真相的方式。
Science is at its best when it dares to be human.
當(dāng)科學(xué)敢于為人時(shí)， 它就處于最佳狀態(tài)。
Thank you.
謝謝。
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