利用決策邏輯來創(chuàng)造長期的最佳結(jié)果已經(jīng)成為一門科學。這門科學利用了概率學和統(tǒng)計學、博弈論等工具。盡管這些工具很多都能帶來幫助，但有效決策的基本要素是相對簡單和永恒的，事實上在不同程度上以基因的形式存在于人腦里。通過觀察野生動物你會發(fā)現(xiàn)，它們本能地計算自身能量的預期價值，以將覓食消耗的能量最小化。這方面做得好的動物繁衍成功，通過自然選擇過程傳遞自身基因，做得不好的動物則會消亡。盡管在這方面做得不好的人類通常不會消亡，但他們肯定也會遭到經(jīng)濟選擇過程的懲罰。 如前所述，大致存在兩種決策方式，一種以證據(jù)和邏輯為基礎(chǔ)（來自較高層次的大腦），另一種以潛意識和情緒為基礎(chǔ)（來自較低層次的動物性的大腦）。依賴其他任何東西時要慎重。不幸的是，心理學家進行的大量測試表明，多數(shù)人在多數(shù)時間里受到較低層次大腦的控制，這導致劣質(zhì)決策，而他們還不自知。如卡爾·榮格所說：“除非你意識到你的潛意識，否則潛意識將主導你的人生，而你將其稱為命運?！碑敹鄠€群體合作時，決策更應當基于證據(jù)、符合邏輯，否則決策程序?qū)⒉豢杀苊獾乇蛔顝姶蠖皇亲蠲髦堑某蓡T主宰，這不僅不公平而且質(zhì)量欠佳。成功的組織都有組織文化，確?；谧C據(jù)的決策是常規(guī)而非例外。Using decision-making logic to produce the best long-term outcomes has become its own science—one that employs probabilities and statistics, game theory, and other tools. While many of these tools are helpful, the fundamentals of effective decision making are relatively simple and timeless—in fact they are genetically encoded in our brains to varying degrees. Watch animals in the wild and you’ll see that they instinctively make expected value calculations to optimize the energy they expend to find food. Those that did this well prospered and passed on their genes through the process of natural selection; those that did it poorly perished. While most humans who do this badly won’t perish, they will certainly be penalized by the process of economic selection. As previously explained, there are two broad approaches to decision making: evidence/logic-based (which comes from the higher- level brain) and subconscious/emotion-based (which comes from the lower-level animal brain).Be wary of relying on anything else. Unfortunately, numerous tests by psychologists show that the majority of people follow the lower-level path most of the time, which leads to inferior decisions without their realizing it. As Carl Jung put it, “Until you make the unconscious conscious, it will direct your life and you will call it fate.” It’s even more important that decision making be evidence-based and logical when groups of people are working together. If it’s not, the process will inevitably be dominated by the most powerful rather than the most insightful participants, which is not only unfair but suboptimal. Successful organizations have cultures in which evidence-based decision making is the norm rather than the exception.
