美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息不僅影響美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)金融發(fā)展，更是對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和資本市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定有著巨大影響。二十世紀(jì)九十年代至今，隨著美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展，通脹開(kāi)始上漲。為了抑制通脹上行、穩(wěn)定就業(yè)市場(chǎng)、支撐經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)以聯(lián)邦基金目標(biāo)利率為工具，共完成了4輪加息。2022年3月，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布加息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)，開(kāi)啟了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的第五輪加息。我們梳理了歷次加息進(jìn)程及對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響，分析如下：
The Fed's interest rate hike not only affects the economic and financial development of the United States, but also has a great impact on the global economic development and the stability of capital markets. Since the 1990s, with the rapid development of the US economy, inflation has begun to rise. In order to curb upward inflation, stabilize the job market and support economic growth, the Federal Reserve has completed four rounds of interest rate hikes with the federal fund target interest rate as a tool. In March 2022, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate increase of 25 basis points, opening the fifth round of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve. We have combed the process of previous interest rate increases and their impact on the economy, and the analysis is as follows:
(一) 第一輪加息周期(1994/2-1995/2)
(I)The first interest rate increase cycle (1994 / 2-1995 / 2)
二十世紀(jì)九十年代初，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退。為了支撐經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降低聯(lián)邦基金目標(biāo)利率，從9%降至1992年的3%，隨后便維持低位運(yùn)行。
In the early 1990s, the American economy fell into recession. In order to support the economic recovery, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target interest rate from 9% to 3% in 1992, and then kept it low.
此后，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇，失業(yè)率也保持在較低的水平。1994年四季度，美國(guó)GDP同比增長(zhǎng)了4.12%，較1991年一季度的同比下跌0.95%，GDP同比增速大幅上漲。在此背景下，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)擔(dān)憂經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)熱引發(fā)通脹大幅上漲。1994年2月，在通脹并未大幅上漲的背景下，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布加息，首次加息20個(gè)基點(diǎn)。在隨后的12個(gè)月內(nèi)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)共加息7次，累計(jì)加息300個(gè)基點(diǎn)。
Since then, the US economy has recovered strongly and the unemployment rate has remained at a low level. In the fourth quarter of 1994, the U.S. GDP increased by 4.12% year-on-year, down 0.95% year-on-year from the first quarter of 1991, and the year-on-year growth rate of GDP increased sharply. In this context, the Fed is worried that the overheating economy will lead to a sharp rise in inflation. In February 1994, when inflation did not rise sharply, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate increase of 20 basis points for the first time. In the following 12 months, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates seven times, with a cumulative increase of 300 basis points.
美國(guó)方面，此次提前加息有效地抑制了美國(guó)通脹上行，但對(duì)資本市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生了較大影響。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布加息后，美國(guó)通脹回落，但經(jīng)濟(jì)增速開(kāi)始放緩。資本市場(chǎng)方面，加息后，企業(yè)盈利能力受到影響，美股市場(chǎng)大幅回落，隨后呈現(xiàn)出震蕩下行趨勢(shì)。在此次加息周期內(nèi)，美國(guó)三大股指大幅下跌，跌幅均超過(guò)了4%。債市方面，美債收益率大幅攀升。
In the United States, the interest rate hike in advance effectively restrained the upward inflation in the United States, but had a great impact on the capital market. After the Federal Reserve announced interest rate hike, US inflation fell, but economic growth began to slow down. In the capital market, after the interest rate increase, the profitability of enterprises was affected, and the US stock market fell sharply, followed by a shock downward trend. During the interest rate hike cycle, the three major stock indexes in the United States fell sharply, with a decline of more than 4%. In the bond market, US bond yields rose sharply.
新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家方面，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)此次加息對(duì)全球金融市場(chǎng)造成了廣泛而深遠(yuǎn)的影響。隨著美元走強(qiáng)，新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家貨幣迅速貶值，尤其是墨西哥，貨幣大幅貶值。受到市場(chǎng)恐慌情緒蔓延的影響，大量資本從墨西哥流出，國(guó)際收支情況惡化，直接導(dǎo)致了墨西哥國(guó)內(nèi)爆發(fā)了大規(guī)模的貨幣危機(jī)。
In emerging market countries, the Fed's interest rate hike has had a broad and far-reaching impact on global financial markets. With the strengthening of the US dollar, the currencies of emerging market countries depreciated rapidly, especially Mexico. Affected by the spread of market panic, a large amount of capital flowed out of Mexico, and the balance of payments deteriorated, which directly led to the outbreak of a large-scale currency crisis in Mexico.
中國(guó)方面，1994年，中國(guó)股市還未與國(guó)際市場(chǎng)建立比較密切的聯(lián)系，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息對(duì)中國(guó)的影響較小。除此之外，在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息之前，中國(guó)央行已經(jīng)開(kāi)始收緊貨幣政策，以應(yīng)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)通脹上漲。因此，此輪加息對(duì)中國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)的影響并不明顯。
In China, in 1994, China's stock market had not established a close relationship with the international market, and the Fed's interest rate hike had little impact on China. In addition, before the Fed raised interest rates, the Central Bank of China has begun to tighten monetary policy to cope with rising domestic inflation. Therefore, the impact of this round of interest rate increase on China's financial market is not obvious.
(二) 第二輪加息周期(1999/6-2000/5)
(II)The second interest rate increase cycle (1999 / 6-2000 / 5)
二十世紀(jì)九十年代末，受到東南亞金融危機(jī)和俄羅斯債務(wù)違約的影響，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)下調(diào)聯(lián)邦基準(zhǔn)利率。隨后，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展，IT行業(yè)飛速增長(zhǎng)，大量資金涌入IT行業(yè)。與此同時(shí)，美國(guó)通脹持續(xù)攀升，CPI超過(guò)了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)設(shè)定的2%的政策目標(biāo)。1999年6月，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布收緊貨幣政策，開(kāi)始加息。在隨后的11個(gè)月內(nèi)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)共加息6次，累計(jì)加息175個(gè)基點(diǎn)。
In the late 1990s, affected by the Southeast Asian financial crisis and Russia's debt default, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal benchmark interest rate. Subsequently, the U.S. economy developed rapidly, the IT industry grew rapidly, and a large number of funds poured into the IT industry. Meanwhile, US inflation continued to rise, and CPI exceeded the 2% policy target set by the Federal Reserve. In June 1999, the Federal Reserve announced to tighten monetary policy and began to raise interest rates. In the following 11 months, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates six times, with a cumulative increase of 175 basis points.
美國(guó)方面，加息后，美國(guó)三大主要股指漲跌互現(xiàn)，納斯達(dá)克綜合指數(shù)大幅上漲，市場(chǎng)陷入“科技股泡沫”。美債收益率和美元指數(shù)雙雙上漲，呈現(xiàn)出震蕩上行的勢(shì)頭。整體來(lái)看，此次加息規(guī)模較小，并未改變市場(chǎng)的原本趨勢(shì)。
In the U.S., after the interest rate hike, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose and fell, the Nasdaq composite index rose sharply, and the market fell into a 'technology stock foam'. US bond yields and the US dollar index both rose, showing a momentum of shock and upward. On the whole, the interest rate increase is small and has not changed the original trend of the market.
新興市場(chǎng)方面，此輪加息引起新興市場(chǎng)主要股指短期內(nèi)波動(dòng)加劇，但并未引發(fā)國(guó)際資本大規(guī)模流出。中國(guó)方面，二十世紀(jì)九十年代末，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在緩慢復(fù)蘇。自1997年四季度以來(lái)，為了緩解國(guó)內(nèi)的通縮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，央行開(kāi)始實(shí)施寬松的貨幣政策。在此輪加息周期中，中美貨幣政策表現(xiàn)分化，美國(guó)加息對(duì)中國(guó)的影響相對(duì)較小。
In terms of emerging markets, this round of interest rate hikes caused the volatility of major stock indexes in emerging markets to intensify in the short term, but did not trigger a large-scale outflow of international capital. On the Chinese side, in the late 1990s, China's economy was slowly recovering. Since the fourth quarter of 1997, in order to alleviate the risk of domestic deflation, the central bank has begun to implement loose monetary policy. In this round of interest rate hike cycle, the performance of China US monetary policy is differentiated, and the impact of US interest rate hike on China is relatively small.
(三) 第三輪加息周期(2004/6-2006/5)
(III)The third interest rate increase cycle (2004 / 6-2006 / 5)
二十一世紀(jì)初，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和金融市場(chǎng)受到“科技股泡沫”破滅的影響，陷入衰退。2001-2003年期間，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)連續(xù)13次降息，將基準(zhǔn)利率維持在較低水平。在長(zhǎng)期低利率的背景下，美國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)大幅上漲，房地產(chǎn)泡沫顯現(xiàn)，通脹抬頭。為了應(yīng)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)泡沫和通脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，2004年6月，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布加息。在隨后的24個(gè)月內(nèi)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)共加息17次，累計(jì)加息425個(gè)基點(diǎn)。
At the beginning of the 21st century, the economic development and financial market of the United States fell into recession due to the bursting of the 'technology stock foam'. From 2001 to 2003, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates 13 times in a row to maintain the benchmark interest rate at a low level. Against the background of long-term low interest rates, US house prices rose sharply, the real estate foam appeared, and inflation rose. In order to deal with the real estate foam and inflation risk, the Federal Reserve announced to raise interest rates in June, 2004. In the following 24 months, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 17 times, with a cumulative increase of 425 basis points.
美國(guó)方面，加息周期內(nèi)，美債收益率回落，而美元指數(shù)也并未隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息走高，受到美國(guó)通脹值較高的影響，美元表現(xiàn)疲軟。此輪加息雖然時(shí)間長(zhǎng)、規(guī)模大，但并未吸引大規(guī)模資金流入美國(guó)，也未有效遏制房地產(chǎn)泡沫。
In the United States, during the interest rate hike cycle, the US bond yield fell, and the US dollar index did not rise with the Fed's interest rate hike. Affected by the high value of US inflation, the US dollar was weak. Although this round of interest rate increase took a long time and was large in scale, it did not attract large-scale capital to flow into the United States, nor did it effectively curb the real estate foam.
新興市場(chǎng)方面，由于在此次加息周期中，美元并未明顯走強(qiáng)，反而大幅下跌，國(guó)際資本并未大范圍流出，因此對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)的影響有限。
In terms of emerging markets, the impact on emerging markets is limited because the US dollar did not strengthen significantly in this interest rate increase cycle, but fell sharply, and international capital did not flow out on a large scale.
中國(guó)方面，本輪加息周期前后，A股市場(chǎng)呈現(xiàn)出下跌勢(shì)頭，其根本原因是受到中國(guó)央行收緊貨幣政策影響。當(dāng)時(shí)中國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)對(duì)外開(kāi)放程度有限，外資對(duì)市場(chǎng)的影響較小，更多是受到國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和貨幣政策影響。
The fundamental reason is that China's central bank's interest rate hike has shown a downward trend before and after the policy cycle, and the A-share market has been affected by the tightening of China's monetary policy. At that time, the opening-up of China's capital market was limited, and foreign investment had little impact on the market, which was more affected by domestic economic development and monetary policy.
(四) 第四輪加息周期(2015/12-2018/2)
(IV)The fourth interest rate increase cycle (2015 / 12-2018 / 2)
2007年下半年，金融危機(jī)席卷全球，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)遭受毀滅性打擊，失業(yè)率大幅上升。為支撐經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在2007年-2008年期間，連續(xù)10次降息。量化寬松的貨幣政策提振了美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)，但也導(dǎo)致美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表短期內(nèi)急劇膨脹。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)步復(fù)蘇，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)貨幣政策轉(zhuǎn)向正?；?015年12月宣布第一次加息，在隨后的37個(gè)月內(nèi)共加息9次，累計(jì)加息225個(gè)基點(diǎn)。
In the second half of 2007, the financial crisis swept the world, the U.S. economy suffered a devastating blow, and the unemployment rate rose sharply. In order to support the economic recovery, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates 10 times in a row from 2007 to 2008. Quantitative easing monetary policy has boosted the US economy, but it also led to the sharp expansion of the Fed's balance sheet in the short term. With the steady recovery of the economy, the Fed's monetary policy turned to normalization. In December 2015, it announced the first interest rate increase. In the following 37 months, it increased interest rates 9 times, with a cumulative increase of 225 basis points.
美國(guó)方面，本輪加息周期內(nèi)，美股表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁，美元指數(shù)和美債收益率雙雙上漲。加息結(jié)束后，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速雖有所放緩，但通脹壓力得到緩解，就業(yè)市場(chǎng)也逐步修復(fù)。
In the United States, during the current interest rate hike cycle, US stocks performed strongly, and the US dollar index and US bond yield both rose. After the interest rate hike, although the US economic growth slowed down, the inflationary pressure was relieved and the job market was gradually repaired.
新興市場(chǎng)方面，在此輪加息周期中，美元表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勢(shì)，大量的國(guó)際資金流出新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家，新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家貨幣貶值壓力激增，部分新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家GDP出現(xiàn)了負(fù)增長(zhǎng)。
In terms of emerging markets, in this round of interest rate hike cycle, the US dollar performed strongly, a large number of international funds flowed out of emerging market countries, the pressure of currency devaluation in emerging market countries surged, and the GDP of some emerging market countries showed negative growth.
中國(guó)方面，美元升值增加了人民幣的貶值壓力，與此同時(shí)，中國(guó)還是美元外匯的主要持有國(guó)，在此輪加息周期中，中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備大幅縮水。A股方面，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息短期內(nèi)引發(fā)市場(chǎng)恐慌情緒蔓延，波動(dòng)明顯。隨后，受到央行貨幣政策和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響，大幅反彈。
In China, the appreciation of the US dollar has increased the pressure on the depreciation of the RMB. At the same time, China is still the main holder of US dollar foreign exchange. In this round of interest rate increase cycle, China's foreign exchange reserves have shrunk sharply. In terms of a shares, the Fed's interest rate hike triggered the spread of market panic in the short term, with obvious fluctuations. Subsequently, it rebounded sharply under the influence of the central bank's monetary policy and economic growth.
(五) 第五輪加息周期(2022/3-)
(V)The fifth interest rate increase cycle (2022 / 3 -)
2020年3月以后，為了應(yīng)對(duì)新冠疫情爆發(fā)后的經(jīng)濟(jì)困境，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)推出了一系列超常規(guī)的量化寬松的貨幣政策。一方面，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)選擇降低市場(chǎng)融資成本，在2020年3月連續(xù)兩次降息，將基準(zhǔn)利率降至0-0.25%，低至接近零利率。另一方面，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)陸續(xù)推出了一些系列的量化寬松的貨幣政策以增加美國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)的流動(dòng)性。這些經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激和規(guī)模和力度是史無(wú)前例的，在此之后，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表規(guī)模迅速擴(kuò)大，通脹持續(xù)走高。
After March 2020, in order to deal with the economic difficulties after the outbreak of COVID-19, the Fed launched a series of ultra conventional quantitative easing monetary policy. On the one hand, the Federal Reserve chose to reduce market financing costs and cut interest rates twice in a row in March 2020, reducing the benchmark interest rate to 0-0.25%, close to zero. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has successively launched a series of quantitative easing monetary policies to increase the liquidity of the U.S. financial market. The scale and intensity of these economic stimuli are unprecedented. After that, the scale of the Fed's balance sheet expanded rapidly and inflation continued to rise.
美國(guó)勞工部公布的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，3月美國(guó)消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)(CPI)同比上漲了8.5%，同比漲幅持續(xù)創(chuàng)造今四十年以來(lái)最高紀(jì)錄；3月核心CPI環(huán)比上漲了0.3%；同比增長(zhǎng)了6.5%，創(chuàng)1982年8月以來(lái)最大同比漲幅。
According to the latest data released by the U.S. Department of labor, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 8.5% year-on-year in March, and the year-on-year increase continued to set the highest record in 40 years; Core CPI rose 0.3% month on month in March; It increased by 6.5% year-on-year, the largest year-on-year increase since August 1982.
在此背景下，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)也將2022年的工作重心轉(zhuǎn)移到抑制不斷攀升的通脹上。在2021年11月的月度息會(huì)后，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布在11月開(kāi)始縮減購(gòu)債規(guī)模。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)Taper正式落地，這也意味著持續(xù)了將近一年半的超常規(guī)的貨幣政策開(kāi)始向正?；D(zhuǎn)變。2022年3月，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布加息30個(gè)基點(diǎn)，首次加息落地。5月息會(huì)后，宣布加息50個(gè)基點(diǎn)，并表示將有較大的可能性在6月和7月兩次加息50個(gè)基點(diǎn)。
In this context, the Fed will also shift its focus in 2022 to curb rising inflation. After the monthly interest rate meeting in November 2021, the Federal Reserve announced that it would begin to reduce the scale of bond purchase in November. The official landing of the Federal Reserve taper also means that the unconventional monetary policy, which lasted for nearly a year and a half, began to change to normalization. In March 2022, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate increase of 30 basis points, which was implemented for the first time. After the interest rate meeting in May, it announced a 50 basis point increase in interest rates and said that it would be more likely to raise interest rates by 50 basis points twice in June and July.
美國(guó)方面，首次加息落地并未明顯改善美國(guó)的通脹現(xiàn)狀，美國(guó)通脹壓力依然較大?？紤]到供應(yīng)鏈瓶頸、大宗商品價(jià)格走高、能源價(jià)格大幅攀升和食品價(jià)格暴漲的影響或?qū)⒊掷m(xù)較長(zhǎng)時(shí)間，美國(guó)通脹壓力短期內(nèi)較難緩解。經(jīng)濟(jì)方面，最新公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國(guó)第一季度實(shí)際GDP初值環(huán)比下降了1.4%，自2020年第二季度以來(lái)首次環(huán)比下降， 2021年第四季度終值上漲6.9%。從細(xì)分領(lǐng)域來(lái)看，美國(guó)內(nèi)需依然表現(xiàn)較為強(qiáng)勁，支撐美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在5月加息50個(gè)基點(diǎn)。但需要注意的是，隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)貨幣政策進(jìn)一步收緊，消費(fèi)或在下半年走弱，這將加大美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的下行壓力，或促使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在三季度逐步放緩加息步伐。
In the United States, the first interest rate hike did not significantly improve the inflation situation in the United States, and the inflation pressure in the United States is still large. Considering that the impact of supply chain bottlenecks, rising commodity prices, sharp rise in energy prices and soaring food prices may last for a long time, it is difficult to alleviate the inflationary pressure in the United States in the short term. In terms of economy, the latest data show that the initial real GDP of the United States decreased by 1.4% month on month in the first quarter, decreased for the first time since the second quarter of 2020, and the final value increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021. In terms of segments, domestic demand in the United States is still relatively strong, supporting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in May. However, it should be noted that with the further tightening of the Fed's monetary policy, consumption may weaken in the second half of the year, which will increase the downward pressure on the US economy or cause the fed to gradually slow down the pace of raising interest rates in the third quarter.
新興市場(chǎng)方面，美元指數(shù)上升，美元走強(qiáng)，本土貨幣走弱，或引發(fā)大量的外資流出新興市場(chǎng)，回到美國(guó)，新興市場(chǎng)股市短期內(nèi)震蕩明顯。
In emerging markets, the rise of the US dollar index, the strengthening of the US dollar and the weakening of local currencies may lead to a large number of foreign capital outflow from emerging markets and return to the United States. The stock market in emerging markets fluctuates significantly in the short term.
人民幣匯率方面，考慮到當(dāng)前全球金融市場(chǎng)受到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息的影響波動(dòng)明顯，而中美貨幣政策分化進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大，增加未來(lái)人民幣匯率走勢(shì)的不確定性。人民幣貶值會(huì)對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)造成廣泛的影響：首先是外資或受到匯率波動(dòng)加劇的影響流出中國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)，其次以人民幣計(jì)價(jià)的資產(chǎn)貶值壓力增強(qiáng)，也不利于我國(guó)進(jìn)口產(chǎn)業(yè)的長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展。
In terms of RMB exchange rate, considering that the current global financial market is significantly affected by the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve, and the differentiation of China US monetary policy is further expanded, which increases the uncertainty of the trend of RMB exchange rate in the future. The devaluation of RMB will have a wide impact on China's economy and society: firstly, foreign capital flows out of China's capital market or is affected by the intensification of exchange rate fluctuations. Secondly, the pressure of asset devaluation denominated in RMB increases, which is not conducive to the long-term development of China's import industry.
(六)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息短期內(nèi)擾動(dòng)市場(chǎng)，但長(zhǎng)期上漲趨勢(shì)不改
（6） The Fed's interest rate hike will disturb the market in the short term, but the long-term upward trend will not change
美國(guó)作為全球范圍內(nèi)的超級(jí)大國(guó)，是全球流動(dòng)性的主要供給者。從歷史數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)看，在加息周期內(nèi)，海外市場(chǎng)短期波動(dòng)加劇。但等到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)連續(xù)加息、市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和壓力得到充分釋放后，全球市場(chǎng)將迎來(lái)新一輪的上漲行情。
As a global superpower, the United States is the main supplier of global liquidity. From the historical data, the short-term volatility of overseas markets intensified during the interest rate hike cycle. However, when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates continuously and the market risks and pressures are fully released, the global market will usher in a new round of rising market.
中國(guó)方面，隨著中國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)國(guó)際化進(jìn)程穩(wěn)步提升，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息也增加了中國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)的不確定性。在此前的四輪加息周期中，A股市場(chǎng)在短期內(nèi)受到美國(guó)流動(dòng)性收緊出現(xiàn)波動(dòng)。但從中長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，A股市場(chǎng)并未跟隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息周期變化，而是走出獨(dú)立行情，其主要原因是中國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)受到國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)、政策變化的影響更大。
In China, with the steady improvement of the internationalization process of China's capital market, the Fed's interest rate increase has also increased the uncertainty of China's capital market. In the previous four interest rate hike cycles, the A-share market fluctuated due to the tightening of us liquidity in the short term. However, in the medium and long term, the A-share market did not follow the change of the Fed's interest rate increase cycle, but walked out of the independent market. The main reason is that China's capital market is more affected by domestic economic and policy changes.
后市來(lái)看，雖然今年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)上行壓力有所增加，但中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)韌性較強(qiáng)，自新冠疫情在全球蔓延以來(lái)，仍然實(shí)現(xiàn)了強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展前景良好，預(yù)計(jì)仍能維持增長(zhǎng)的勢(shì)頭。在“穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)”政策力度不斷加大的背景下，央行貨幣政策堅(jiān)持“以我為主”，保證流動(dòng)性合理充裕，海外流動(dòng)性收緊的影響或逐漸削弱。
In the future, although the upward pressure on China's economy has increased this year, China's economy is resilient. Since the new crown epidemic spread around the world, it has still achieved strong growth. The economic development prospect is good, and it is expected to maintain the growth momentum. In the context of the increasing efforts of the 'steady growth' policy, the central bank's monetary policy adheres to 'focus on me' to ensure reasonable and abundant liquidity, and the impact of overseas liquidity tightening may be gradually weakened.
文章作者：陳靂、任莉（陳靂為川財(cái)證券首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、研究所所長(zhǎng),中國(guó)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家論壇理事）
Author: Chen Li, Ren Li (Chen Li is chief economist of Chuancai securities, director of Research Institute, and director of China chief economist Forum)
（文章來(lái)源：首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家論壇）
Article source：首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家論壇
Original title：陳靂：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)歷次加息進(jìn)程及對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響
